CNX-NIFTY--A TECHNICAL VIEW--1-10-2015

CNX-NIFTY

Closed at 7948.90 on 30-9-15.

Support:--7940/ 7840/7759/ 7723 / 7678.50/7667.25/7539.50/7422.

Resistance:-7970/7997/8055/8065/ 8091.80/8195.

It opened on a firm note at 7924.75 and then made a low of 7874.50 and thereafter steadily moved up and made a high of 7957.70 before closing the day near the high at 7948.90. It gave a robust up move today and it out played Bank Nifty completely. It showed good strength and short term technical parameters have improved even then it has to be seen that whether this momentum will continue or not because the trend is still down. It is still within its broad range of 7660—8060(see my post of 28-9-2015) and break out on either side would decide which way it will move, if it moves above 8060 mark it will show some strength and it will show real strength if it sustains above 8137 level(it changes every day).

For 1-10-2015 its short term trend line would be at 7816, Its short term moving average range is between 7894--7814(it changes every day), It is closer to the upper band of its broad range of 7660-8060, after making lower top & bottom on the line chart  it has decisively crossed the recent top of 7868.50 which is good sign. Therefore short term parameters are encouraging but not to forget that the corrective up rallies shows all the promise but can exhaust abruptly also, so one has to be very careful and cautious in the long trade. In view of the above technical observation the following trading strategy is suggested.

TRADING STRATEGY

1.Long call can be tried above 7970  with a stop loss of below 7920.

2.Can try buy call near 7894 with a stop loss of below 7848.It could be a risky trade.

3. Short call can be tried below 7860 with a stop loss of above 7900

4. if it moves up it is going to face huge resistance in the range of 8040-8065 so try sell call here but not above 8065 with a stop loss of above 8110.

Remark:-The long term trend is still down. Today’s move was strong and steady and suggest buying but moving forward it will face huge resistance in the range of 7940—7970—8022--8065 and the fear of rally exhaustion is also there, therefore specially long trade should be handled with extreme caution  and care. Traders can initiate trades as suggested above.                                                                                            

Please note that profit should also be booked in trade from time to time at the appropriate points so that you can take advantage of the market swings.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable  trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Note: Price stated here is of spot market.

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit the trade.

CNX--BANK NIFTY--A TECHNICAL VIEW--1-10-2015

CNX--BANK NIFTY

Closed at 17216.30 on 30-9-15.

Support:-17174/17216/16969/16759/16670/16484/16192/15762.20.

Resistance:-17246/17465/17502.45/17542.90/17569.80/17602/17719.

It opened firmly at 17404.75 and made a high of 17449.85 and then slipped down and made a low of 17100.20 before closing the day at 17216.30. Its movement was weak today but it managed to hold the key short term parameters but if it fails to show strength in next 3-4 trading session then it may go in for sharp downside correction. Please note that it will only show strength if it sustains above 17550(it changes every day).

For 1-10-2015 its short term trend line would be at 17220 and today it has closed just below this mark, so it has to move and close above 17220 mark tomorrow if the on going up move is to continue. Its short term moving average range is between 17211—16804(it changes every day), it has still not made lower bottom on the line chart and the recent bottom is at 17100.30 and top is at 17281.20,therefore no weakness as yet on this count. In view of the above technical parameters it will give first crack in the on going up move if it closes below 17220 then close below 17100 will indicate some weakness and potential weakness below 16670 mark. Similarly moving up it will only show some strength if it sustains above 17550(it changes every day). Looking at the above technical position the under noted trading strategy is suggested. It is needles to mention here that since the trend is down and today’s move was also weak, so it is suggested to avoid long call but if initiated should be handled with caution and care.

  

 TRADING  STRATEGY

1. Long call can be tried above 17211 or 17290 with a stop loss of below 17100 & 17200 respectively.

2. Short call can be tried if it sustains below 17220 or below 17100 with a stop loss of above 17290 & 17230 and below 17031 for sure with a stop loss of above 17150, aggressive trader can try short call on the rise around 17550 but not above this mark with a stop loss of above 17660.

Remark:-The long term trend is still down. It under performed today, it was down but still not out, so look out for a clear signal to initiate trade position. The bias is down, therefore I would personally look for an opportunity to sell only till it moves above 17550 and sustain, but one can try trade calls as suggested above. 

                                                                                          

Please note that profit should also be booked in trade from time to time at the appropriate points so that you can take advantage of the market swings.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable  trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Note: Price stated here is of spot market.

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit the trade.

CNX-NIFTY--A TECHNICAL VIEW---30-9-2015

CNX-NIFTY

Closed at 7843.30 on 29-9-15.

Support:-- 7840/7759/ 7723 / 7678.50/7667.25/7539.50/7422.

Resistance:-7907.95/7940—7962/7997/8021.60/8055/8065/ 8091.80.

It opened with a huge down gap at 7725.70 and made a low of 7691.20 and even after RBI’S rate cut announcement it was moving in a range for some time and thereafter shot-up and made a high of 7926.55 but could not hold on at higher level and closed the day at 7843.30. The volatility it exhibited today was expected (see my post for 29-9-15) but it did not show the required strength to carry on with the up move, therefore watch its movement for at least next two days to get clear direction that which way it want to move, but most of the technical parameters suggest that the fresh down move may be in the offing in coming days. So watch out the price movement and act accordingly.

 It is still moving in its broad range of 7660—8060(see post of 28-9-15),therefore today’s move was nothing significant, it did violated the short term rising trend line intra day but held it and it would at 7790 for 30-9-2015, it managed to bounce back within the short term moving average range of 7890—7816(it changes every day)for 30-9-15, it is making lower top & bottom on the line chart and the recent bottom is at 7795.70 it made on 28-9-15 bad sign, although it did break the support range of 7723—7700 but bounced back from there, so it is a huge support range for it and final support exist at 7660 break below this mark will accelerate the fall. Looking at the above technical parameters following trading strategy is suggested for 30-9-2015.

TRADING STRATEGEY

1.Long call can be tried above 7870 or above  7895 with a stop loss of below 7840 & 7860 respectively. It would be better to try it above 7895.

2.Can try buy call near the range of 7816---7790 with a stop loss of below 7759. It could be a risky trade.

3. Since it has huge support in the range of 7723—7700 and then at 7660 it would be safe to try short call if it sustain below 7711 and add on position below 7660 with a stop loss of above 7770 & 7723 respectively.

4. Since the trend is down, so sell call can also be tried if it sustains below 7790 with a stop loss of above 7840 or on the rise but below 7940 with a stop loss of above 7980.

Remark:-The long term trend is still down.  As expected it had a volatile day today. It hangs in balance now, so watch its price movement for next two days for proper direction and then act accordingly. However day trader can initiate trade as suggested above. The bias is still down.                                                                                            

Please note that profit should also be booked in trade from time to time at the appropriate points so that you can take advantage of the market swings.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable  trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Note: Price stated here is of spot market.

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit the trade.

CNX--BANK NIFTY---A TECHNICAL VIEW--30-9-2015

CNX--BANK NIFTY

Closed  at 17281.20 on 29-9-15.

Support:-- 17246 / 17174/16983/16969/16759/16670/16484/16192/15762.20.

Resistance:- 17465/17502.45/17542.90/17569.80/17602/17719/17738.

As expected it had a volatile day, it opened with a huge down gap at 16859.75 and went down further and made a low of 16648.30 and then after the RBI’S rate cut announcement it zoomed up and made a high of 17461.35 before closing the day at 17281.20. It broke all the short term technical parameters intra -day but managed to hold all of them at the end of the day, so it is still looking balanced on the daily chart. Please note that the long term trend is still down and it will only show some strength if it moves above 17552(it changes every day) and sustain, it had moved past this mark number of times but failed to hold on. Since it had extremely volatile day today, it would be better to watch the price movement carefully for at least next two days for proper direction and then take action accordingly.

It is still within its broad range of 17730—16759(see post of 28-9-15),Its short term rising trend line would be at 17100 for 30-9-2015, its short term moving average range it between 17198—16801, although it made lower top on the line chart at 17255.30 but it did not break the bottom of 17031 and now made a higher bottom at 17100.30 and is in the making of higher top also ,it will show weakness only if it closes below 17100  mark and potential weakness below 16670 mark. In view of the above technical parameters one can initiate trade position as suggested below.

 TRADING  STRATAGY

1. Long call can be tried above 17290 or above 17311 with a stop loss of below 17 200 & 17240 respectively.

2.Can buy  near  17146—17100 but not below 17100 with a stop loss of below 17030. It could be a risky trade.

3. Short call can be tried below 17100 with a stop loss of above 17255 and below 17031 for sure with a stop loss of above 17150, aggressive trader can try short call on the rise around 17552 but not above this mark with a stop loss of above 17660.

Remark:-The long term trend is still down.  As expected it had a volatile day today, but despite wild swing during the day it is not showing weakness on the daily chart based on short term technical parameters. It hangs in balance now but the bias is still down, so watch its price movement for next two days for proper direction and then act accordingly.

                                                                                         

Please note that profit should also be booked in trade from time to time at the appropriate points so that you can take advantage of the market swings.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable  trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Note: Price stated here is of spot market.

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit the trade.

TRADING CALL--29-9-2015

CNX-NIFTY--A TECHNICAL VIEW--29-9-2015

CNX-NIFTY

Closed  at 7795.70 on 28-9-15.

Support:-- 7759/ 7723 / 7678.50/7667.25/7539.50/7422.

Resistance:-7840/7890/7907.95/7940—7962/7997/8021.60/8055/8065/ 8091.80.

It opened on a positive note at 7892.80 and made a high of 7893.95 and then slipped down in the later part of the afternoon session and made a low of 7787.95 and closed near the low at 7795.70. Today’s move showed weakness and in this down move it has broken all its short term moving averages and the range for them is between 7824—7894(it changes every day) for 29-9-2015, furthermore it has made lower top & bottom on the line chart but yet to break the recent bottom of 7723 on the bar chart and  holding on the short term rising trend line which would be at 7775 for 29-9-2015. Since it has made lower top and bottom on the line chart, it is very likely that the bottom of 7723 on the bar chart will also be taken out for sure. Please note that moving down it will get good support in the range of 7723—7700 and then 7660 , once the 7660 mark is taken out then possibly the speed of the fall may accelerate, chances of which are looking pretty good. Since tomorrow it could be a hugely volatile day because of the RBI’S trade policy announcement, therefore traders should be extra careful in their trade positions particularly in long side trade because the trend is down.

Trading Strategy   

1. It is suggested to avoid long trade now but aggressive day trader can try long call  above 7908 or near 7723—7711 with a stop loss of below 7860 & 7690.

2.Short call can be initiated if it moves  below 7775 and sustain with a stop loss of above 7840 or on the rise but below 7908 with a stop loss of above 7940.

 Remark:-The long term trend is still down. But in view of RBI’S trade policy announcement, it would be safe to initiate fresh trade position after the RBI’S event is over. The bias is down, therefore it is suggested to avoid long call now, if initiated should be handled with extreme caution and care.                                                                                             

 Please note that profit should also be booked in trade from time to time at the appropriate points so that you can take advantage of the market swings.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable  trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Note: Price stated here is of spot market.

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit the trade.

CNX-BANK NIFTY--A TECHNICAL VIEW--29-9-2015

CNX--BANK NIFTY

Closed  at 17100.30 on 28-9-15.

Support:-- 16983/16969/16759/16670/16484/16192/15762.20.

Resistance:- 17174 / 17246/17502/17542.90/17569.80/17602/17719/17738.

It opened on a firm note at 17286.25 and made a high of 17384.75 thereafter in the later part of the 2^nd half trading session it went down sharply and made a low of 17073.95 before closing the day near the low at 17100.30. Despite the down day today it is not showing the weakness which nifty is showing. It is holding on the short term rising trend line which would at 17025 for 29-9-15, it is within its short term moving averages range which is between 17161—16798(it changes every day)for 29-9-15, although it has made lower top on the line chart but not yet broken the bottom of 17031 to make a lower bottom and  yet to break bottom of 16759 on the bar chart. So comparatively it is looking  better on the chart but not that great may be it is holding on because of the RBI’S credit policy announcement  tomorrow and once this event is over it may start a fresh down move ,because major constituent stocks in it are very badly placed on the technical chart. Therefore it is suggested to initiate fresh trading call after the credit policy announcement is over ,but aggressive trader can  try trading calls as suggested below.

Trading Strategy 

1.Long call can be tried above 17260 or above 17311 with a stop loss of below 17 140 & 17240 respectively.

2.Can buy above 17161 with a stop loss of below 17030. It could be a risky trade.

3. Since it had made lower top on the line chart Short call can be tried below 17255 with a stop loss of above 17320 and below 17025 for sure with a stop loss of above 17150, aggressive trader can try short call on the rise to around 17560 but not above this mark with a stop loss of above 17660.

 Remark:-The long term trend is still down. But in view of RBI’S credit policy announcement, it would be safe to initiate fresh trade position after the RBI’S event is over. The bias is still down.

                                                                                          

Please note that profit should also be booked in trade from time to time at the appropriate points so that you can take advantage of the market swings.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable  trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Note: Price stated here is of spot market.

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit the trade.

DOLLAR – Vs –RUPEE---AN UPDATE---27-9-2015

Dollar – Vs –Rupee

 Closed at Rs.66.15 on 25-9-2015.

SUPPORT:-65.85 / 65.55 / 65.24 / 65.05 / 64.38 / 63.88 / 63.64 / 63.24.

RESISTANCE:-66.37 / 66.90 / 67.72 / 68.80 / 71.25.

TECHNICAL   OBSERVATION :-

It looks good and bullish on the technical chart. After making multiple tops in the range of 66.89--66.90 recently it corrected and  now consolidating ,but if it breaks 66.03 mark on closing basis and sustain then it will show some weakness and correct further and break below 65.55 & 65.20 will show potential weakness and if it sustain below it then it may come down to 64.38 / 63.88 level,chances of coming down to these levels looks bleak at this point of time , anyway be alert and remain watchful here , similarly moving up it will face resistance at 66.37 / 66.51 & 66.90 and once if it crosses and sustain 66.90 mark then it may zoom to test its previous all time high of 68.80 very fast. It hangs in balance now therefore watch out the price movement for immediate direction and act accordingly. It is needless to mention here that the long term trend is up.

 REMARKS:-The long term trend is up and it will only be threatened if it breaks below 64.20(it changes every day) and the trend will be in real danger if it breaks below 63.30(it changes every day) and sustain and happening this looks a distant possibility now.   

 Kindly note that profit should also be booked in trade from time to time at the appropriate points so that you can take advantage of the market swings.

  

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable  trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Note: Price stated here is of spot market.

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit the trade.

TRADING CALLS FOR--28-9-2015

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVG INDEX--A TECHNICAL VIEW---26-9-2015

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVG INDEX

CLOSED AT 16314 ON 25-9-2015.

SUPPORT:- 16016.36 / 15979.95 / 15855 / 15703.79 / 15370.33 / 15340.69.

RESISTANCE:- 16333.78 / 16669.97 / 16933.43 / 17037.76 / 17067.59 / 17262.37.

Dow looks hugely bearish on the technical chart and as of now it seems that it will seek lower levels on a steady basis in coming days, weeks and months but in between short up rally could be there from time to time. Please note that any significant change in price movement can change the direction of the trend, therefore chart has to be viewed on regular basis for correct and timely assessment for the change in direction of the trend. There are some important technical observations which are given here under and the under noted parameters would drive the Dow movement for the coming weeks and months.

A TECHNICAL SNAPSHOT

1.It is running below all its long term moving averages and the range for the same is between 17763-17264(it changes every day) and it is far below this range now. To regain the lost up momentum it has to move above the upper band of the range and sustain. If it moves above the lower band of the range and sustain then it will start showing some strength.

2. Its long term moving average range on the weekly chart is between 16596—15175(it changes every week) and now it is below its upper band of the range which indicate tremendous weakness. If it slips below the lower band and sustain then the fall will accelerate.

3. RSI is showing huge negative divergence on the weekly and monthly chart as of now, which is a bad sign. But it has to be reviewed from time to time and seen in sync with the other technical parameters. If it comes into play then it will create havoc in coming weeks and months, chances of which looks reasonable as of now.

4. It is running below its long term rising trend line drawn from the bottom of 6469.95 it made on 6-3-2009 and connecting the bottom of 10404.50 it made on 4.10.2011. This would at 16740 for the month of October 2015.Since it is running below 6-1/2 years drawn trend line it speaks of great weakness.

5. its last year’s low was 15340.69 and it came very close to it this year and hit a low of 15370.33 on 24.8.2015 but managed to hold last year low. However it still exhibit weakness and in all likelihood last year’s low will be taken out in coming months.

In view of the above the broad range for Dow is between 17763---15175(it will change from time to time) and it is almost at midpoint now and there are critical points within the range, therefore going up it will get stiff resistance from those points at 16600 / 16740 / 16934 / 17270 similarly moving down it will find support at 15979.75 / 15855.12 / 15370 / 15340 break below 15340 can drag it down to much lower levels. In totality the bias is bearish and down move is expected in coming days. Therefore it would be better to avoid long call now but if initiated should be handled with extreme caution and care.

Remark:-The long term trend is still down. Therefore long call should be avoided.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable  trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Note: Price stated here is of spot market.

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit the trade.

CNX-NIFTY—UPDATE FOR THE WEEK STARTING FROM—28-9-15

CNX-NIFTY

Closed  at 7868.50 on 24-9-15.

Support:--7829/7812/ 7759/ 7723 / 7678.50/7667.25/7539.50/7422.

Resistance:- 7890/7907.95/7940—7962/7997/8021.60/8055/8065/ 8091.80.

It had relatively a calm day today considering the settlement day of September-2015 series. It opened flat to negative at 7838.40 and made a low of 7804.10 and thereafter steadily moved up and made a high of 7894.50 before closing the day at 7868.50. Although it did not accelerate the down move after the trend reversal on 22-9-2015 but It is also not showing any major strength either and moving in a short range now. There are some important technical observations which are given here under and the under noted parameters would decide the market movement for the coming week/weeks

TECHNICAL  OBSERVATION

1.Inverse Head & Shoulder pattern is visible on daily bar chart and its neckline is in the range of 8050—60,since it is slopping neckline ,so its count will decrease day by day. But take the said range as valid range and if it moves above this range and sustain then the possible maximum target could be in the range of 8500—8550. This pattern will be negated if it moves below 7660.

2.Distinctly visible Head & shoulder Pattern on the weekly  bar chart and its neckline is in the range of 8040—60.The possible maximum target could be in the range of 6900—6800.(see my earlier post)

3. RSI is showing huge negative divergence on the weekly and monthly chart, which is a bad sign. It has to be reviewed from time to time and seen in sync with the other technical parameters

4.It is below all its long term moving averages and the last being at 8147(it changes every day) for 28-9-2015.So it will only show positive strength if it moves above this mark and sustain.

5.Fresh short term rising trend line support is at  following points(approx) for coming week. Break below this support on given day will give first sign of crack.

    28-9-15—7760 / 29-9-15—7775 / 30-9-15—7796 / 1-10-15—7816.

6. Short term moving average range for 28-9-15 is between 7908—7831.

7.Its recent higher bottom is at 7723.25 made on 23-9-2015.

In view of the above technical observation the broad range for nifty is between 7660---8060 and it is evenly placed now and breakout on either side will decide which way it want to move but in totality the bias is bearish and down move is expected, it will give first crack when the rising trend line is violated and then the recent bottom of 7723.25 is taken out similarly if it moves above 8147(it changes every day) and sustain then it will show strength , but not to forget that the RBI trade policy announcement  is lined up for 29-9-15 and if interest rate cut comes market may react positive for a while, even if it is so it seems that it will be difficult to sustain the expected up move and in all likelihood it is going to give moderate to sharp  down move  after the event. In view of the above it is suggested to keep the trade commitments light till the event is over. The long term trend is still down but it is showing some resilience now ,even then long trader are advised to be extra vigilant and cautious in their trade because they may get trapped at higher level. It is suggested to avoid long trade till more clarity is visible on the chart.

Trading Strategy   

1.Day trader can try long call above 7870 or above 7908 with a stop loss of below 7825 & 7860.It would be slightly safe  to try it above 7908.

2.Short call can be initiated if it moves  below 7812 and sustain with a stop loss of above 7870 or on the rise but below 7940 with a stop loss of above 7980.

 Remark:-The long term trend is still down. In view of RBI’S trade policy announcement trade commitments should be kept light, in fact for safe trader it would be better to stay away from the market till the RBI event is over. However aggressive day trader can initiate trade as suggested above. I would personally avoid long call till it moves above the long term moving average last point and sustain instead I would look for opportunity to initiate short trade now.                                                                                            

Please note that profit should also be booked in trade from time to time at the appropriate points so that you can take advantage of the market swings.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable  trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Note: Price stated here is of spot market.

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit the trade.

CNX--BANK NIFTY-UPDATE FOR THE WEEK STARTING FROM 28-9-15

CNX--BANK NIFTY

Closed  at 17196.65 on 24-9-15.

Support:-- 17174/17100/16969/16759/16670/16484/16192/15762.20.

Resistance:- 17246/17502/17542.90/17569.80/17602/17719/17738.

It opened on a negative note at 17206.10 and made a high of 17283.10 and a low of 17070.55 before closing the day at 17196.65. Despite September-2015 series settlement it had an unusually quiet day today may be because of the ensuing event of RBI’S trade policy announcement which is slated for 29-9-2015. Technically it hangs in balance now and the said RBI’S event outcome will decide further price action, however if rate cut happens it can shoot up for a while but how long will it sustain the rise has to seen. Since the long term trend is down in all likelihood it may slide after the event gets over. In view of this it is suggested to keep your trade commitments light. There are some important technical observations which are given hereunder and the under noted parameters would drive the market movement for the coming week/weeks.

TECHNICAL  OBSERVATION

1.Inverse Head & Shoulder pattern is visible on daily bar chart and its neckline is in the range of 17700--730,since it is rising neckline ,so its count will increase day by day. The said range of neckline is valid up to 9-10-15,so if it moves above this range and sustain then the possible maximum target could be in the range of 19300—19500.

2. RSI is showing huge negative divergence on the weekly and monthly chart, which is a bad sign. It has to be reviewed from time to time and seen in sync with the other technical parameters.

3.It is below all its long term moving averages and the last being at 17565(it changes every day) for 28-9-2015.So it will only show positive strength if it moves above this mark and sustain.

4.Fresh short term rising trend line support is at  following points(approx) for coming week. Break below this support on given day will give first sign of crack.

    28-9-15—16940 / 29-9-15—17025 / 30-9-15—17115 / 1-10-15—17220.

5. Short term moving average range for 28-9-15 is between 17147--16803.

6.Its recent higher bottom on the bar chart is at 16759made on 23-9-2015.

7.It made a lower top on the line chart at 17255.30 on 23-9-2015(bad sign) but has not made lower bottom as yet and the recent bottom is at 17031.15 made on 22-9-2015.

In view of the above technical observation the broad range for Bank Nifty is between 17730---16759 and it is almost evenly placed now and breakout on either side will decide which way it want to move but in totality the bias is bearish and down move is expected, it will give first crack when the rising trend line is violated and then the recent bottom of 17031.15 on the line chart and bottom of 16759 on the bar chart is taken out similarly if it moves above 17565(it changes every day) and sustain then it will show strength and beyond 17730 mark it can show good up movement. I light of RBI’S event traders should be circumspect in their trade position and it is better to avoid aggressive trade now on both sides till the event is over.

Trading Strategy 

1.Long call can be tried above 17260 or above 17311 with a stop loss of below 17 140 & 17240 respectively. It would be slightly safer to try it above 17311.

2.Can buy now also but not below 17147 with a stop loss of below 17030. It could be a risky trade.

3. Since it had made lower top on the line chart Short call can be tried below 17255 with a stop loss of above 17320 and below 17030 for sure with a stop loss of above 17150, aggressive trader can try short call on the rise to around 17565 but not above this  mark with a stop loss of above 17660.

Remark:-The long term trend is still down. In view of RBI’S trade policy announcement trade commitments should be kept light, in fact for safe trader it would be better to stay away from the market till the RBI event is over. However aggressive day trader can initiate trade as suggested above. I would personally avoid long call till it moves above the long term moving average last point and sustain instead I would look for opportunity to initiate short trade for now.

                                                                                          

Please note that profit should also be booked in trade from time to time at the appropriate points so that you can take advantage of the market swings.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable  trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Note: Price stated here is of spot market.

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit the trade.

CNX-NIFTY--A TECHNICAL VIEW---24-9-2015

CNX-NIFTY

Closed at 7845.95 on 23-9-15.

Support:--7840/7829/7812/7795/7787/ 7761/ 7723 / 7678.50/7667.25/7539.50/7422.

Resistance:-7858/7907.95/7940—7962/7997/8021.60/8055/8065/ 8091.80.

As apprehended it almost followed bank nifty movement today, opened with a down gap at 7737.35 and hit a low of 7723.25 thereafter zoomed up and made a high of 7882.90 and closed at 7845.95. Today’s move could be considered as just a bounce back of a sharp fall it witnessed yesterday and this morning and it may not last ,but price movement has to be respected in any case and trade decision has to  be maneuvered  accordingly to protect gains and cut losses early. Now it is having support from lower band of its short term moving average range which is between 7910—7827(it changes every day) for 24-9-2015, from the bottom of 7829, 7812 & 7788 on the line chart. Going up it will face stiff resistance at 7910/7940—7962/7997. Looking at today’s volatility day trader can try both long and short trade depending on the price movement but please keep in mind yesterday’s trend reversal and be extra alert in long trades because the long term trend is still down and it will only show some strength  if it moves above 8151(it changes every day) and sustain.

Trading Strategy   

1.Day trader can try long call above 7860 with a stop loss of below 7800 and can add on position if it moves above 7910 and sustain with a stop loss of below 7860.

2.Short call should only be initiated if it moves  below 7812 and sustain with a stop loss of above 7860, add on short position below 7788 with a stop loss  of above 7820.

 Remark:-The trend is down and today’s   movement was just a sharp bounce back after yesterdays and this morning fall. One should not forget yesterdays trend reversal, furthermore seeing today’s volatility, it is suggested to handle any side trade with extreme caution and  care specially  long trade.

                                                                                                

Please note that profit should also be booked in trade from time to time at the appropriate points so that you can take advantage of the market swings.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable  trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Note: Price stated here is of spot market.

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit the trade.

CNX-BANK NIFTY--A TECHNICAL VIEW---24-9-2015

CNX--BANK NIFTY

Closed  at 17255.30 on 23-9-15.

Support:--17246/17174/16980/16930/16707/16670/16484/16192/15762.20.

Resistance:-17502/17542.90/17569.80/17602/17719/17738/17842/18034.

It opened with a huge down gap at 16783.80 and made a low of 16759 and thereafter sharply moved up and made a high of 17309.70 before closing the day at 17255.30. It went near the bottom of 16739 on the line chart intra -day but closed way above it, furthermore it went below all its short term moving averages during the day but managed to close well above it, so at the end of the day it has shown good strength despite yesterday’s reversal pattern, therefore one has to respect price movement in any case and take decision in their trade accordingly to protect gains and cut losses early.

 Now it is having good support from its short term moving averages which is in the range of 17106—16789(it changes every day) for 24-9-15 and from its recent bottom of 17031.15 on the line chart. So it will show potential weakness only if the said bottom and the short term moving average range is taken out. It is looking OK now but not to forget that the long term trend is still down and this bounce could end up as bull trap also. Please note that it will show good strength if it moves above 17571(it changes every day) and sustain. Looking at today’s volatility day trader can try both long and short trade depending on the price movement but please keep in mind yesterday’s trend reversal and be extra alert in long trades.

Trading Strategy 

1.Long call can be tried above 17310 with a stop loss of below 17200 for a target of 17454 and 17502—570. Or near 17106 with a stop loss of below 17031 but avoid fresh long call below 17106 mark for sure.

2. Short call should be tried below 17030 with a stop loss of above 17150, aggressive trader can try short call on the rise around the range of 17530—17570 with a stop loss of above 17660.

Remark:-The trend is down but today’s move  showed some firmness but not to forget that it had trend reversal yesterday and this bounce could end abruptly also  ,therefore both side trade should be handled  with extreme caution and care particularly long trade.

                                                                                  

Please note that profit should also be booked in trade from time to time at the appropriate points so that you can take advantage of the market swings.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable  trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Note: Price stated here is of spot market.

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit the trade.