CNX NIFTY---- A TECHNICAL VIEW (IT SEEMS PAINFUL DAYS AHEAD ) 29-3-2015

CNX NIFTY

CLOSED AT 8341.40 ON 27.3-2015

SUPPORT: -8282.70 / 8272.80 / 8269.15 / 8180 / 8160 / 8147.95 / 8065.45 / 7961.35 / 7723.85.

 RESISTANCE: - 8470.50 / 8626.95 / 8669.45 / 8788.70

 As expected nifty topped out at 9119.20 on 4-3-2015(see my last post dt- 7-3-2015) and correction began and it has corrected by 850 points till 27-3-2015 on intra day basis in 16 trading session which is huge and even now giving no sign of reasonable or smart recovery instead exhibiting gross weakness. Technically also it is running below its all short, medium and some long term moving averages which is a bad sign, short and medium term moving averages are inching down every day for negative crossover and if it happens it  could be devastating, furthermore RSI is also showing negative divergence on daily weekly and monthly chart indicating that it could seek much lower levels from here in coming days if it continues like this, therefore overall technical view is that it is tremendously weak now and all major indicator suggest that down move should continue for quite some time, however if nifty has to come out of this then it has to stage a powerful recovery now and move reasonably above 8626.95 mark and sustain but chances of which are looking extremely bleak at this point of time.

It has also broken the upper band of the long term moving average range therefore the long term up-trend is also threatened. The range of long term DMA is between 8450---8068 now (it changes every day with price movement) and if it breaks 8068 level and consistently starts trading below this mark then it could turn into a bear market and then this on- going correction could be much painful value wise & time  wise  and it may last for at least 6- 8 months and nifty could come down to unexpectedly lower levels, however in between short up –rally cannot be ruled out. Therefore for the long term up trend to stay intact it has to remain reasonably above the upper band of long term DMA which is at 8450 now.

In view of the above observation, I suggest to stay away from the long trade till it gives visible indication of bottoming out instead try short call on the rise. It is clearly sell on the rise market now.  

Kindly note that profit should also be booked in trade from time to time at the appropriate points so that you can take advantage of the market swings.

REMARK:-Long term up trend still intact but threatened. Looking in totality my bias is completely on the downside as of now, therefore long trade is completely ruled out for me now and I would suggest to sell on the rise.

  

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable  trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Note: Price stated here is of spot market.

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit the trade.

NIFTY-(SEEMS TO HAVE TOPPED OUT FOR NOW)---7-3-2015

CNX- NIFTY

The movement of Nifty on 4-3-2015 was wild it opened with a huge gap up at 9109.15 and made a new all time high of 9119.20 and was trading in the range of 9050—9075 up till 2 pm in the afternoon and thereafter started moving down and sharply plunged down to make a low of 8893.95 before closing the day at 8922.65 which was below the previous day’s low, today it showed gross weakness and in technical parlance   it is called key reversal. It strongly indicate that either nifty has topped out for now and down correction may begin before it resume up-move again or it has topped out for good and uptrend is over. It seems that it has topped out for now   provided it does not cross the level of 8996.60 and stays and then off course the all time high mark of 9119.20. Going down the critical support levels for it are at 8626.95 / 8470 / 8282.70 & 8272.80. Its long term moving averages at present it placed in the range of 8365—7985( it changes with price movement ) on 6-3-2015 therefore the first threat to the long term uptrend will be below 8365 level and trading below 8000 consistently will confirm that the uptrend is over. I would therefore define the trading range of the nifty here under in the following manner:-

(1). 8626.95---8996.60 & 9119.20

(2).8626.95----8272.80

(3).8272.80-----7985

Looking at the overall picture, I would suggest  to avoid long call now and try it only if it moves above 8996.60 and stay or after a significant decline and near 8669--8626.95 range with a stop loss of below 8590 instead short call can be tried here on the rise but below 9000 with a stop loss of above 9040.

Kindly note that profit should also be booked in trade from time to time at the appropriate points so that you can take advantage of the market swings. Use support and resistance levels for entry, exit and trailing stop losses.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Note: Price stated here is of spot market.

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit the trade.